基于多元发展情景的黄河流域城市安全韧性仿真研究
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摘要：
以地理环境多样和生态脆弱著称的黄河流域城市，在诸多因素的影响下，所面临的风险灾害表现出了破坏程度大和治理难等特点。选择安全韧性作为城市治理新思路的突破口，从灾害抵抗力、适应力和恢复力维度构建城市安全韧性仿真模型，以黄河流域64个城市为研究对象，分析2010年至2018年城市安全韧性及抵抗力、适应力和恢复力变化原因，设定多元发展情景并模拟2019至2030年城市安全韧性的动态变化。结果表明：黄河流域城市安全韧性仿真模型能够用于分析与预测城市安全韧性变化；黄河流域灾害抵抗能力指数与灾害恢复能力指数在仿真期出现两次波动。根据《黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展规划纲要》，黄河流域城市安全韧性将不断提升，且优于现状延续发展情景，建议黄河流域城市系统从监测预报预警体系、外部协同救援能力、产业结构、人口总量、生态环境建设和安全管理投入方面提升黄河流域城市安全韧性水平。为黄河流域城市安全韧性水平提升提供理论参考与决策依据。
Cities in the Yellow River Basin, known for their diverse geographical environments and fragile ecosystems，face significant disaster risks due to the complex interaction of various factors. These risks are characterized by the high degree of damage and the dificulty of implementing effective governance measures. By focusing on urban governance through the lens of urban resilience, a breakthrough is proposed by using a new framework of disaster resistance, adaptability, and recovery. A simulation modelfor urban safety resilience was constructed, targeting 64 cities in the Yellow River Basin to analyze the reasons behind the changes in urban safety resilience ,resistance, adaptability, and recoveryfrom 2010 to2018.Multiple development scenarios were set to simulate the dynamic changes in urban safety resilience from 2019 to2030.The results indicate that the urban safety resilience simulation model can be effectively used to analyze and predict changes in urban safety resilience. Both the disaster resistance index and recovery capacity index in the Yelow River Basin experienced two fuctuations during the simulation period.According to the Yellow River Basin Ecological Protection and High-Quality Development Plan,urban safety resilience in the Yellow River Basin will continue to improve, outperforming the status quo and baseline development scenarios. The study recommends that urban systems in the Yellow River Basin enhance safety resilience by improving monitoring and early warning systems,external collaborative rescue capabilities, industrial structure, population management, ecological environment construction, and safety management investments.This study provides theoretical references and decisionmaking support for enhancing urban safety resilience in the Yellow RiverBasin.
作者：
任捷，王迪，王雅荣，刘颖
Ren jie, Wang Di, Wang Yarong, Liu Ying
机构地区：
内蒙古科技大学经济与管理学院；内蒙古自治区高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地产业信息化与产业创新研究中心；内蒙古哲学社会科学重点研究基地黄河“几字弯 ”发展研究中心
引用本文：
任捷，王迪，王雅荣等。基于多元发展情景的黄河流域城市安全韧性仿真研究 [J] . 学报(自然科学版) ,2025,53(2) :24-35. (Ren Jie,Wang Di,Wang Yarong,etal.Simulation study on urban safety resiliencein the Yellow RiverBasin based on multipledevelopmentscenarios[J] .JournalofHenan NormalUniversity(Natu- ralScience Edition) ,2025,53(2) :24-35. DOI:10. 16366/j. cnki.1000-2367. 2023. 11. 07. 0001. )
基金：
国家自然科学基金；内蒙古自治区高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地开放课题；内蒙古自治区社会科学基金；内蒙古自治区直属高校基本科研业务项目
关键词：
黄河流域；城市安全韧性；多元情景；仿真预测
Yellow RiverBasin; urban security resilience; multiple scenarios;simulation forecasting
分类号：
X923
